In previous posts I noted that excess mortality due to COVID-19 was 43% higher among Republican voters than Democratic ones, and that Americans who considered themselves as “liberals” had much more confidence in scientists about cancer than the “very conservative” ones. This would lead one to expect that following the disinformation on vaccines by Trump and the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, Kennedy, the vaccination rates would drop. The good news is that, as of now, it is not the case.
By the end of January 2026, after one year of Trump presidency, the U.S. influenza coverage among people 18 and over has increased by 2.7 percentage points compared to the same date in 2025: 46.2% vs 43.5%. This reverses the trend after a two-year drop (45.5% in 2023, 44.6% in 2024).
There is a resurgence of measles in the country. However, given the highly contagious nature of measles, this is due to a very limited drop in the MMR (measles, mumps, rubeola) national average coverage (the drop in vaccination and surge of cases is county-dependent). The national coverage has dropped from 95.2% for the school year 2019-2020 to 92.7% in 2023-24. The drop for 2024-2025, a school year including 6 months of Trump presidency, is only 0.2%, to reach 92.5%. Given that Kennedy accuses the MMR vaccine of causing autism, this decrease is remarkably limited.
It is, unfortunately, likely that the vaccine coverages will decline in the U.S. in the coming years. However, it will not be the massive drop we might fear. The confidence in vaccines resists the Trump administration’s disinformation.
References:
https://data.cdc.gov/Flu-Vaccinations/Weekly-Cumulative-Influenza-Vaccin...
https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/Vaccination-Coverage-and-Exemptions-am...
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HIFA profile: Bernard Seytre is a Consultant at BNSCommunication in France. Professional interests: Health communication and education. seytre AT bnscom.fr